As the Indian stock market at record high, what you think are the possible reasons that can drag it back to the normal base
14 August 2019
See first of all no one can exactly perfectly guess about the stock market crash especially. Whenever you read these kind of reports on TV or any discussion in your groups or whatever you think on your own, all the the personal interpretations of everyone involved. It can be logical or non logical but but all thoughts are their personal ones which have nothing to with the larger economy as a whole. If you see those advisory on TV advising something, it is their personal view on certain stocks or market as a whole, but that is not 1000% sure that whatever they advice are bound to happen. They just display their thought either to help viewers or to earn money, fame and some clients that is it.
Mostly you must have met someone who will tell you to BUY, just because he is holding some shares with BUY long positions in equity or Future and Options segments. He will all the time advice you to buy only just because his view is that market is going to go up, and that is why he has bought some shares and that is why he is also advising you to buy only. he is hopeful of price rise and so he is with a buying opinion till he sell the stock in loss or profit that is different matter.Now if you will meet other guy who is holding short positions in market will advice you to sell off everything. And this keeps going on with different persons who comes out with their own different opinions. If you meet 10 persons before or during market time, all those 10 will have their own views, at he same time :)
This indicated no one in the market has perfect answer, but than to they have the prefect confident answer for as per their own personal thinking and positions.As a stock broker I do not believe all these advisory and personal thoughts at all. in fact you won't believe but I do not see TV before or during market hours at all. Rather I prefer to see some important news and facts at night time just for a knowledge. I will tell you why..You must have experienced that one good morning you thought that today market is going to go up and you will buy some shares or you will sell those shares at good rate which you had have as delivery. Now you are in front of TV and you see that those so called stock experts are a view that market is going to fall today. Now it keeps roaming in your mind, just because he was on TV and must be some cleaver guy, so at the end you follow their advice and you do not buy new shares, plus you sell the existing stock holding before the target rates that you decided, and.. you see market is going up and up only and you have nothing to book profit and you did not buy those shares at good rates also. And this happens vice versa style also. you were correct in your mind and strategy, but TV wale spoiled your trading style and earnings.The main reason for making and advising on this website is for the same reason only. We do not take any subscription charges or % in profit at all ( except you need very personalized services). This website is 100% FREE 101% ACCURATE and for those who can not afford to pay hefty fess to these so called advisers who know nothing or know everything. This is for them who really wants to earn bit by bit and to progress by earning constantly in stock market on delivery and daily basis.
Now coming to the point, lets discuss the possible reasons that could drag the market and sentiments</strong>The market sentiment depends and watch many factors like stability or INR to Dollar, crude price, macro micro data, trade war these days especially between US China, upcoming general elections in 2019, financially yearly and quarterly results and much more like those factors. Actually no one can predict how exactly these data or prices which affect the market and on what basis and percentages. But yes I personally see few reasons which may trigger the markets worldwide and Indian as well. IF we talk about current affairs than trade war is worsening between US and China and as of not it is limited to only those both continents, but if it worsens more than it could affect world markets at a large, and to INDIA markets as well.
Recently, talks between US and China failed which were about to cool off the tensions between both the nations. So all eyes will be closely watching the progress over this matter.Rising crude price or instability also confusion the market sentiments these days. It went to 38$ last year and climbed one way to 80$ and these days around 70-75 $, so it depends on demand supply and how much reserve or safety India is having.Dollar is rising one way above 70-71$ to INR and these is the current most problematic tension for India. No doubt India has enough FOREX reserves and nothing to worry that much, but than too at long run it must stabilize to keep economy safe and stable.
So all eyes are only on Dollar these days.And if we go for recent alerts coming up is that general elections in India due at 2019, but as of now as per TV data and Polls Modi is coming back and I personally see that is the reason behind current stock market rise, but if other party or parties union will take over in 2019, than that will be the most probable reason of stock market fall at large in India. As of now I think FII and DII and public at large are buyers with the thought of Modi and BJP is coming back in 2019 for sure.Other main reason is that technically NIFTY has broke all rules ans techniques and all. It is one way rising and ignored all technical rules this time, and that is the reason we should always be alert for any sharp fall coming back after unfavorable news or so.So actually no one can expect sharp rally or fall but we can have some valid thought backing up these theories in general discussions.
We hope this article is helpful and useful for you. We will keep you posting and update on this topic.
GOOD LUCK :)